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raffle points
11 March 2015 17:51


I was going to to tell you about the raffle at the dinner-dance we went to a couple of weeks ago. We didn’t win anything – in fact only one prize was won on our table. Seeing as there were over 30 prizes, and only seven tables that might seem a bit biased (and yes, we did have somewhere around the average number of tickets), but in fact I suspect it is well within the law of probability – if a) there was such a thing as the law of probability, and b) I had a Scooby how to work it out.

Tickets were sold with the usual marketing trick of “five for £5” which makes it look as if you have more chance of winning but, as any fule no, makes no difference to the odds. Even I know that, and I know nothing about statistics. However, although it may not increase you changes of winning, it does give you the opportunity to win more than one prize (and at least one strip did win more than one prize – but again, with approx. 300 tickets (or 60 strips of five) sold, this is also probably within the fictitious law of probability).

Incidentally, if ever you are organising a raffle remember that you can’t do bulk discounts on tickets (e.g. £1 each; but 5 for £4). Every ticket must have the same value (technically, “every pound spend must have the same chance of winning” – but that’s saying the same thing the other way round).

The other thing to remember (and it is a trap that just about every raffle falls into) is LIMIT THE NUMBER OF PRIZES. As I said, this raffle had over 30. This was far too many. The draw took over half an hour – people were bored after five minutes. I’m a great advocate that a raffle should have a few, but good, prizes. Win a bottle of wine and you think “yeah, whatever, it’s a bottle of wine. I’ll drink it with Sunday lunch”. Win a case of wine, however – now that is worth something. Fair enough, a lot of people had donated small prizes – but why not bundle several together into a single prize that is worth winning. I suspect that, as most people (myself included) can’t do the stats, the lure of a large prize (with small odds) is greater than that of a small prize (with better odds) – hence the popularity of the national lottery.

Another problem was that, although most of the prizes were of a similar magnitude of value (bottle of wine, box of chocolates) two were in a different league – a microwave oven and some other electrical kitchen gadget. Prizes weren’t allocated in advance – each ticket winner chose from the table. This raised a dilemma (or would have done if I had been lucky enough to win). Do you choose the most expensive prize to maximise your winnings, or a standard prize so that you don’t look greedy? It might have been better to allocate the prizes before drawing the tickets – or make these two items the first two prizes, and let winners choose from then on.

A few years ago I went to another fund raising event where, as well as the prize-excessive raffle, there was an auction. This probably seemed like a good idea to the organisers at the time – some good prizes had been donated and an auction would raise more money than a raffle would.

Except they had overlooked one important factor. The audience was limited. An auction will only raise as much money as punters are prepared to bid, and if no one in the room is interested in the item, it won’t sell for very much. You won’t get much for a Southampton football ticket at an auction in Portsmouth. A second problem is that people will only spend until they run out of money. If they came to the event expecting to spend £20, once they have spent that £20 they won’t bid for anything else. And never forget that when you win a bid at an auction, you have paid more than anyone else in the room thought it was worth – more fool you.

One of the event organisers had persuaded a professional artist to donate a painting to the auction. He got most upset (and waltzed off in a huff – much to my amusement) when the painting was sold for far less than in would normally fetch. But this wasn’t an art auction – it was only a group of general public interested in raising a bit of money for charity. They were never going to pay art room sale prices. And as for the painting itself, while it was perfectly pleasant and I could appreciate the skills of the artist, it wasn’t something I would want to hang on my wall.

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